In a recent issue, we wrote up the work of Ben Zipperer, who found that, based on past deportation episodes, the current and much larger episode is likely to result in substantial job losses for native-born workers as well. That seems to be happening already, though it’s likely we’re only in the early phases of what could be a major shock.
The numbers look quite large. Quoting ourselves citing Zipperer: “[O]ver the next four years, 3.3 million jobs held by immigrants will disappear, plus another 2.6 million held by native-born, for a total of 5.9 million—almost 4% of total employment. In other words, for every 1,000 immigrants who lose their jobs, almost 800 natives will as well.” The reason is that occupations dominated by natives and immigrants are complementary, not rivalrous. For example, in the construction industry, immigrants dominate less-skilled roles and natives the more-skilled ones. As Zipperer puts it, “when there are fewer immigrant roofers and framers to build the basic structure of homes, there will be less work available for U.S.-born electricians and plumbers.” Early signs on that score are not encouraging: for the year ending in March 2026, employment in residential construction, where roofers and framers work, was down 0.4%; in specialty trades, where electricians and plumbers toil, it was down 1.1%.
We’re seeing evidence that native and immigrant employment are moving in tandem, not opposition, in recent aggregate data as well. In an April 3 blog post for the Economic Policy Institute, Zipperer noted rising unemployment rates for native-born workers. We’re extending that work some.
Household stats based on nativity are very volatile from month to month. To compensate for that, Zipperer used three-month moving averages and then seasonally adjusted them. He looked only at native-born unemployment rates since 2023. We made the same adjustments on the unemployment rate and the employment/population ratio (EPOP). The results are graphed below.
A couple of points. Since 2012, the unemployment rate for foreign-born has almost always been lower than that for natives. The major exception: the worst months of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, as workers in immigrant-heavy sectors like leisure and hospitality were laid off with particular intensity. Over the last couple of years, the rates have moved in near-lockstep, with the native slightly higher.
Things are a little different for the EPOP. For the entire period since 2007, the immigrants’ ratios have always been higher than natives’, and by a fairly consistent margin. (Since 2007, the ratio of foreign to native EPOPs has averaged 126%; the maximum is 129% and the minimum, 120%.) Since peaking in July 2023, the fully averaged/adjusted EPOP for immigrants down 0.9 points, and 1.2 for natives. Since December 2025, the last full month before the deportation machinery was cranked up—which happened right after Trump took office—the immigrant EPOP is up 0.2 and the native is down0.9.
Employment figures are also negative. For the three months ending in March 2026, native employment is down 0.2% from the three months ending in March 2025; for immigrants, it’s down 1.0%. There’s a stark gender contrast: male immigrant employment is off 4.5%; women, up 3.5%. For native males, employment is down 0.6%; for women, up 0.3%.
As we noted, these numbers are noisy. And given fear and dislocation, getting survey responses from immigrant workers is probably more difficult than ever. So we take these stats as preliminary, and more suggestive than definitive. But what they suggest is that immigrants’ losses are not natives’ gains. There are losses all around.
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Deportations are not helping native-born workers
In a recent issue, we wrote up the work of Ben Zipperer, who found that, based on past deportation episodes, the current and much larger episode is likely to result in substantial job losses for native-born workers as well. That seems to be happening already, though it’s likely we’re only in the early phases of what could be a major shock.
The numbers look quite large. Quoting ourselves citing Zipperer: “[O]ver the next four years, 3.3 million jobs held by immigrants will disappear, plus another 2.6 million held by native-born, for a total of 5.9 million—almost 4% of total employment. In other words, for every 1,000 immigrants who lose their jobs, almost 800 natives will as well.” The reason is that occupations dominated by natives and immigrants are complementary, not rivalrous. For example, in the construction industry, immigrants dominate less-skilled roles and natives the more-skilled ones. As Zipperer puts it, “when there are fewer immigrant roofers and framers to build the basic structure of homes, there will be less work available for U.S.-born electricians and plumbers.” Early signs on that score are not encouraging: for the year ending in March 2026, employment in residential construction, where roofers and framers work, was down 0.4%; in specialty trades, where electricians and plumbers toil, it was down 1.1%.
We’re seeing evidence that native and immigrant employment are moving in tandem, not opposition, in recent aggregate data as well. In an April 3 blog post for the Economic Policy Institute, Zipperer noted rising unemployment rates for native-born workers. We’re extending that work some.
Household stats based on nativity are very volatile from month to month. To compensate for that, Zipperer used three-month moving averages and then seasonally adjusted them. He looked only at native-born unemployment rates since 2023. We made the same adjustments on the unemployment rate and the employment/population ratio (EPOP). The results are graphed below.
A couple of points. Since 2012, the unemployment rate for foreign-born has almost always been lower than that for natives. The major exception: the worst months of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, as workers in immigrant-heavy sectors like leisure and hospitality were laid off with particular intensity. Over the last couple of years, the rates have moved in near-lockstep, with the native slightly higher.
Things are a little different for the EPOP. For the entire period since 2007, the immigrants’ ratios have always been higher than natives’, and by a fairly consistent margin. (Since 2007, the ratio of foreign to native EPOPs has averaged 126%; the maximum is 129% and the minimum, 120%.) Since peaking in July 2023, the fully averaged/adjusted EPOP for immigrants down 0.9 points, and 1.2 for natives. Since December 2025, the last full month before the deportation machinery was cranked up—which happened right after Trump took office—the immigrant EPOP is up 0.2 and the native is down0.9.
Employment figures are also negative. For the three months ending in March 2026, native employment is down 0.2% from the three months ending in March 2025; for immigrants, it’s down 1.0%. There’s a stark gender contrast: male immigrant employment is off 4.5%; women, up 3.5%. For native males, employment is down 0.6%; for women, up 0.3%.
As we noted, these numbers are noisy. And given fear and dislocation, getting survey responses from immigrant workers is probably more difficult than ever. So we take these stats as preliminary, and more suggestive than definitive. But what they suggest is that immigrants’ losses are not natives’ gains. There are losses all around.