The BLS is just out with the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) release for the first quarter of 2019—not exactly breaking news, but of longer-term interest. First quarter gross job gains fell to 5.9% of employment from 6.3% of employment in 2018Q4, while gross job losses slipped only from 5.6% to 5.5%. A year earlier the numbers were 6.1% (gains) and 5.5% (losses). Not only were net gains weaker in 2019Q1 than 2018Q1, job turnover, the combined total of gross gains and losses, 11.4% vs. 11.6%, is down, further evidence of the eroding dynamism of the US economy. From 1992 to 2000, turnover averaged 15.5% of employment; from 2001–2005, 14.2%; since 2010, 12.1%. BED also includes stats on establishment openings and […]
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“The boss told me, I’d get paid weekly…
…and that’s exactly how I’m paid.” Johnny Paycheck If it’s so hard to find workers… The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced...
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Benchmark Blues: BLS to Cut 0.3%, or 501,000 jobs, from 2019 levels
The extrapolation methods used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in producing their monthly estimates (their word) of NonFarm Payroll (NFP) growth...
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Dwindling Labor Share
Here we revisit a familiar topic: the decline in the labor share of national income. We were prompted to revisit by a recent post to the St....
Fed Focus
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Longer & Mostly Milder, but Don’t Sneeze
November 19, 2018Rising interest rates probably won’t help the startup series, outlined below, head northward. How does the current tightening cycle stack up against earlier instances? -
Trends in FOMC projections
April 9, 2018We thought some graphs of the FOMC’s projections and revisions would be useful as Chair Powell takes the helm. In a phrase, they’re pretty good when things are -
What Jerome Powell thinks about ‘flation
November 6, 2017Because he was more of a regulator than economist, Governor Powell flew below many radar screens. All that changed when he became a clear contender to be the new head of
TLR in the News
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Randall Forsyth’s IPO Roundup
April 21, 2019Randy Forsyth posted a nice round-up of “high-wire” IPOs in Barron’s on Saturday, quoting some research we published last week: “Wacky IPOs might be -
TLR in WOWS, AKA Welling on Wall Street
January 8, 2019We are happy that the formidable Kate Welling is a long-time reader of our work, and a wonderful friend, and are always pleased when she republishes our stuff, in this -
Fossil Fuels: $5 Trillion in International Subsidies
January 8, 2019If anyone knows who took this photograph, please let us know. We are honored that Cumberland Advisors picked up some work we did on climate change and the November
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