And, since the benchmark goes through last March, that’s close to all the jobs gained between December 2018 and March 2019. The Bureau of Labor Statistics states clearly on their website that the extrapolation methods they use in producing their monthly estimates (their word) of nonfarm payroll growth make it impossible to catch cycle turns. Changes in trend get picked up in the annual benchmark, derived from the Unemployment Insurance filings mandated by federal law that cover 97% of the NFP universe. The rule of thumb at the BLS is that if the benchmark falls between +/-0.2%, the average of the last 10 years, everything is copacetic, but if it exceeds that there is real information there. This morning the […]
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Dwindling Labor Share
Here we revisit a familiar topic: the decline in the labor share of national income. We were prompted to revisit by a recent post to the St....
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“Credit positive activities,” A Short-lived Phenomenon
According to a Moody’s analysis of 100 large companies, after an initial round of “credit positive activities,” notably debt reduction,...
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Longview: ECI
You might think a sub-4% unemployment rate would be nudging the employment cost index (ECI) higher, but it’s not. In the first quarter, private...
Fed Focus
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Longer & Mostly Milder, but Don’t Sneeze
November 19, 2018Rising interest rates probably won’t help the startup series, outlined below, head northward. How does the current tightening cycle stack up against earlier instances? -
Trends in FOMC projections
April 9, 2018We thought some graphs of the FOMC’s projections and revisions would be useful as Chair Powell takes the helm. In a phrase, they’re pretty good when things are -
What Jerome Powell thinks about ‘flation
November 6, 2017Because he was more of a regulator than economist, Governor Powell flew below many radar screens. All that changed when he became a clear contender to be the new head of
TLR in the News
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Randall Forsyth’s IPO Roundup
April 21, 2019Randy Forsyth posted a nice round-up of “high-wire” IPOs in Barron’s on Saturday, quoting some research we published last week: “Wacky IPOs might be -
TLR in WOWS, AKA Welling on Wall Street
January 8, 2019We are happy that the formidable Kate Welling is a long-time reader of our work, and a wonderful friend, and are always pleased when she republishes our stuff, in this -
Fossil Fuels: $5 Trillion in International Subsidies
January 8, 2019If anyone knows who took this photograph, please let us know. We are honored that Cumberland Advisors picked up some work we did on climate change and the November
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