According to preliminary numbers from Standard & Poor’s, buybacks among S&P 500 components rose rose 15% in the third quarter, after a 55% decline in the second, leaving them 42% below a year earlier. Measured as a percent of GDP, buybacks are now in the same neighborhood they were last seen in in 2010—though that’s still well above where they were any time between 1998 and 2004. Measured as a percentage of operating earnings, as in the second graph, buybacks fell to their lowest levels since 2010, 32%. Despite the increase in dollar volume, buybacks declined as a percentage of earnings because earnings were up 42% in the quarter. In the 40 quarters between 2010 and 2019, buybacks fell below […]
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Health effects of Confusing Absolute w/ Relative?
Dr. William Darity, in charge of many things at Duke University, has been steadily advancing his theory of stratification economics, arguing...
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A Multi-Century Elevator Ride
In the late 1800s, Native Americans told naturalists working in Alaska that the marbled murrelet, a small seabird that flies underwater when...
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A Metaphor Unlikely to Deliver: Betting on H20
Michael Hiltzik has a piece buried in this morning’s Los Angeles Times, with the catchy title, “Wall Street Can Now Bet on the Price of California...
Fed Focus
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Longer & Mostly Milder, but Don’t Sneeze
November 19, 2018Rising interest rates probably won’t help the startup series, outlined below, head northward. How does the current tightening cycle stack up against earlier instances? -
Trends in FOMC projections
April 9, 2018We thought some graphs of the FOMC’s projections and revisions would be useful as Chair Powell takes the helm. In a phrase, they’re pretty good when things are -
What Jerome Powell thinks about ‘flation
November 6, 2017Because he was more of a regulator than economist, Governor Powell flew below many radar screens. All that changed when he became a clear contender to be the new head of
TLR in the News
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In Barron’s
March 26, 2020Randall Forsyth culls the attached text: That was despite some backpedaling on Friday, following January’s employment report, which was less spectacular than the -
Randall Forsyth’s IPO Roundup
April 21, 2019Randy Forsyth posted a nice round-up of “high-wire” IPOs in Barron’s on Saturday, quoting some research we published last week: “Wacky IPOs might be -
TLR in WOWS, AKA Welling on Wall Street
January 8, 2019We are happy that the formidable Kate Welling is a long-time reader of our work, and a wonderful friend, and are always pleased when she republishes our stuff, in this
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