This morning’s report on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan graphed the share of respondents reporting income gains as the reason for improved personal finances by income tercile. Although the trendlines remain sharply down for all three, the top tercile is climbing, with 44% mentioning income gains in early February, while the second and third continue their slides, with only 17% of the third tercile mentioning gains, the lowest level since 2014. Fifty-four percent of the top tercile reported their finances have improved, compared with 23% in the bottom third.
And that partisan divide just keeps growing. Overall the index slipped to 76.2 in early February from January’s 79; was basically unchanged at 86.2 v. 86.7 for current conditions; while expectations fell about 4 points to 69.8.
Within that, after rounding, the overall index among Democrats was unchanged at 90, down 1 point for Independents to 76, and down 6 points among Republicans to 64. Little change in current conditions among Democrats, 86, but Independents rose 5 points to 86, which cancelled out the 7-point fall among Republicans, 92. Same old unchanged for Democrats in expectations, 92, while Independents fell 5 points to 69, as did Republicans, but to 46.
Given his thinking that the new round of relief payments will reduce stress among those with lowest incomes, Richard Curtin found it “more surprising” that the outlook fell among consumers, but it’s far from a unanimous decline.
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Details on that Decline in UMich Expectations
This morning’s report on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan graphed the share of respondents reporting income gains as the reason for improved personal finances by income tercile. Although the trendlines remain sharply down for all three, the top tercile is climbing, with 44% mentioning income gains in early February, while the second and third continue their slides, with only 17% of the third tercile mentioning gains, the lowest level since 2014. Fifty-four percent of the top tercile reported their finances have improved, compared with 23% in the bottom third.
And that partisan divide just keeps growing. Overall the index slipped to 76.2 in early February from January’s 79; was basically unchanged at 86.2 v. 86.7 for current conditions; while expectations fell about 4 points to 69.8.
Within that, after rounding, the overall index among Democrats was unchanged at 90, down 1 point for Independents to 76, and down 6 points among Republicans to 64. Little change in current conditions among Democrats, 86, but Independents rose 5 points to 86, which cancelled out the 7-point fall among Republicans, 92. Same old unchanged for Democrats in expectations, 92, while Independents fell 5 points to 69, as did Republicans, but to 46.
Given his thinking that the new round of relief payments will reduce stress among those with lowest incomes, Richard Curtin found it “more surprising” that the outlook fell among consumers, but it’s far from a unanimous decline.